As expected, the Open RAN market ‘screeched to a halt’ during 2024. Mobile Experts released a new report on Open RAN, which it described as ‘the most bizarre market growth profile ever seen in the wireless market.’ After ‘great success’ with deployment in greenfield networks by the DISH WIRELESS and Rakuten, the market research firm is predicting a significant slump this year.
“Our revenue chart for Open RAN looks like the Grand Canyon,” said Joe Madden, Principal Analyst at Mobile Experts. “All of the big clean-sheet O-RAN deployments have finished their major buildout phase, so now the market will transition to upgrades on legacy networks. But legacy networks will use Open RAN differently.”
“Many people don’t understand why legacy mobile operators are rejecting the original Open RAN business model and are choosing a Single Software business model instead. This report provides clear guidance on why the market is fundamentally changing.”
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Comment and Analysis:
The original Open RAN business model called for multiple vendors to provide the equivalent of a disaggregated base station. That is why it was dubbed “Open.” However, legacy carriers prefer a closed solution, where a single vendor is the primary supplier of hardware and software for an Open RAN system. This limits the supply chain diversification that O-RAN was designed to promote and pushes out new vendors. Some examples of single vendor Open RAN solutions include:
Deutsche Telekom and Nokia
NTT DOCOMO and Nokia
The new report lays out the expected revenue in hardware (radios, servers, antennas) and software (vDU, vCU, RIC, xApp, rApp, and dApp) through 2029, as major operators like AT&T, Vodafone, Verizon, Telus, DoCoMo, and others begin to buy mobile infrastructure from alternative vendors.
“The US Government is pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into Open RAN,” continued Mr. Madden. “But sadly, the biggest challenge of Open RAN will not be addressed by NOFO and other government grants. Each grant will be too small to fix the fundamental economic challenge of Open RU hardware. The market will solve the problem anyway, without government help. Get our report for the details.”
Here’s a chart of Open RAN revenue by year:
Subscribers to the Open RAN 2024 report will receive:
Full access to the 40-page Open RAN 2024 report;
Clear breakdowns of the 5-year forecast in an Excel spreadsheet;
Detailed technical background and architectural analysis;
Insight into the pace of upcoming projects with legacy operators; and
Access to the analysts behind the reports.
References:
https://www.telecoms.com/open-ran/open-ran-market-fell-83-in-2024
https://mobile-experts.net/reports/p/oran24?rq=open%20RAN
NTT advert in WSJ: Why O-RAN Will Change Everything; AT&T selects Ericsson for its O-RAN
Parallel Wireless deploys 1,500 Open RAN sites across Africa; partners with Hotspot Network in Nigeria
DISH Wireless Awarded $50 Million NTIA Grant for 5G Open RAN Center (ORCID)
Deutsche Telekom Network Day: Fiber, Mobile Network, Open RAN and 5G SA Launch in 2024
NTT DOCOMO OREX brand offers a pre-integrated solution for Open RAN
Strand Consult: The 10 Parameters of Open RAN; AT&T memo to FCC