A new study from Juniper Research, a leading telecommunications research firm, forecasts 290 million connections globally by 2030; the year after its initial expected launch in 2029 (this author doesn’t think standards for 6G will be completed by 2030). To achieve this early growth, the report cautions operators must solve various technological challenges, including the issue of network interference arising from the use of high-frequency spectrum.
This use of high-frequency spectrum in 6G will be the key enabling technology to provide throughput speeds 100 times greater than current 5G networks. However, as cellular technologies have never used spectrum bands in this range before, the most pressing concern for operators is minimizing this network interference, or risk creating an unreliable 6G network.
RIS Identified as Key Emerging 6G Technology:
To achieve this, the report urges operators to invest in RIS (Reconfigurable Intelligent Surfaces); a technology that will mitigate the impact of interference from large obstacles, including buildings, on network services. This is accomplished by purposefully reflecting and refracting 6G mobile signals to enable data packets to move around physical obstacles.
As 6G standards become clearer in 2025, RIS technology must become an immediate priority for development. However, the report warns that given the wide geographical areas of some 6G networks, operators must implement AI to monitor and adjust RIS configuration in real-time to maximize the technology’s benefits.
Research author Alex Webb remarked: “Initial 6G coverage will occur in the most densely populated geographical areas to serve as many users as possible. Therefore, RIS technology will be key to providing a valuable 6G service to both consumer and enterprise customers in the first few years of network operation.”
In 2030, when Juniper Research expects 6G to reach 290 million connections, GSMA Intelligence predicts in its 2023 mobile economy report that 5G will have surpassed 5 billion connections. We believe both of those forecasts are way off the mark. In fact, we forecast ZERO 6G subscribers in 2030, because the ITU-R IMT 2030 radio standards and 3GPP 6G specs won’t be completed by then.
About the Research Suite:
The new research suite offers the most comprehensive assessment of 6G development to date, including insightful market analysis, and in-depth forecasts for 60 countries. The dataset contains almost 21,000 market statistics over a nine-year period.
Juniper Research has, for two decades, provided market intelligence and advisory services to the global telecommunications sector, and is retained by many of the world’s leading network operators and communications platforms.
Find out more about the new report: Global 6G Development 2024-2032, or download a free sample.
References:
Global 6G Connections to Reach 290m in First Two Years of Service (juniperresearch.com)
Juniper Research: 5G to Account for 80% of Operator Revenue by 2027; 6G Requires Innovative Technologies
SK Telecom, Intel develop low-latency technology for 6G core network
Ericsson and IIT Kharagpur partner for joint research in AI and 6G
Nokia plans to investment €360 million in microelectronics & 5G Advanced/6G technology in Germany
IEEE 5G/6G Innovation Testbed for developers, researchers and entrepreneurs
WRC-23 concludes with decisions on low-band/mid-band spectrum and 6G (?)
ETSI Integrated Sensing and Communications ISG targets 6G
Ericsson’s India 6G Research Program at its Chennai R&D Center
Big 5G Conference: 6G spectrum sharing should learn from CBRS experiences
6th Digital China Summit: China to expand its 5G network; 6G R&D via the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group