In its August 1st press release detailing a large loss (especially from its foundry business), Intel announced it was cutting more than 15% of its workforce by 2025 with most of those coming by year end. The company stated the following in its earnings call prepared remarks:
CEO/CFO Earnings Call Comments:
“We are targeting a headcount reduction of greater than 15% by the end of 2025, with the majority of this action completed by the end of this year. We do not do this lightly, and we have carefully considered the impact this will have on the Intel family. These are hard but necessary decisions. Our actions will reduce OpEx (operating expenses) to approximately $20 billion in 2024, and we see a bigger impact next year, with 2025 OpEx targeted at $17.5 billion, more than 20% below prior estimates. We expect further benefits in 2026, with OpEx to decline in absolute dollars yet again. Even as we lower overall spending, we will continue to fund the investments needed to deliver our strategy.”
The company’s latest filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated there were 124,800 employees as of December 2023, down from 131,900 a year before. Therefore, a 15% reduction could translate to the loss of 18,720 employees and we wouldn’t be surprised by total job cuts exceeding 20,000! In addition to layoffs, Intel is pushing older employees to retire.
CEO Pat Gelsinger wrote in a letter to Intel employees:
“Next week, we’ll announce a companywide enhanced retirement offering for eligible employees and broadly offer an application program for voluntary departures. I believe that how we implement these changes is just as important as the changes themselves, and we will adhere to Intel values throughout this process.”
The objective is to greatly reduce various operational costs (research and development plus marketing, general and administrative expenses) to about $20 billion this year and $17.5 billion in 2025, “with further reductions planned in 2026,” said Intel. That $17.5 billion would be about $4.2 billion less than Intel booked for these expenses in 2023, according to its last annual SEC filing, and a reduction of $7 billion compared with the figure for 2022.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Intel’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to ‘BBB+’ from “A-,” citing execution risks and potential negative rating actions. Fitch also affirmed Intel’s Short-Term IDR and commercial paper rating at ‘F2’. Fitch believes execution risk remains significant for Intel and that missteps could result in further negative rating actions.
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Analyst Comments:
Rosenblatt Securities analyst Hans Mosesmann reiterated his sell rating on Intel stock with a price target of 17. “We anticipate that the company (Intel) will continue to lose share to AMD as its manufacturing roadmap is tepid compared to that of the leading-edge player,” Mosesmann said in a client note.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon was particularly grim about Intel’s prospects.
“The company’s issues are now approaching the existential,” he said in a client note. “In other circumstances we believe we would now be having ‘going concern’ conversations with clients.”
Impact on Intel’s 5G Business:
The company’s website states: “From Cloud to Network to Edge: 5G Is Powered by Intel Intel-powered 5G networks deliver a powerful data-centric future where compute is fluid, intelligent, and pervasive—creating an evolutionary leap in agility and scalability.”
PHOTO: Intel
Intel incorrectly states, “Intel is embedded throughout the 5G value chain, offering flexible performance, Intel® Xeon® Scalable processors, custom RAN configurations, accelerators, software, and a common toolchain.” Does anyone really believe that?
Intel wants 5G network equipment vendors to switch from custom ASIC silicon they design to its general-purpose processors (GPPs). But there has been very limited adoption of those processors in the radio access network (RAN) to date. Many telco executives remain unconvinced GPPs, especially based on x86, can measure up. Arguments about using the same platforms for multiple needs look spurious when most RAN compute is at the mast site, where it cannot realistically be shared with anything else.
Of the big three 5G kit vendors, only Ericsson says Intel is a good option for Layer 1 (PHY), the category of most demanding RAN software. Huawei and Nokia remain vehemently opposed to using Intel silicon in this area. As expected, most of Ericsson’s 5G products today are based on its own custom silicon, not Intel’s GPPs.
References:
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/actions-accelerate-our-progress.html#gs.d2jtpn
https://download.intel.com/newsroom/2024/corporate/Earnings-Call-2Q2024-080124.pdf
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/wireless-network/5g-overview.html